Data Journalism

Unsolved and unsafe: Police forces across England and Wales struggling to tackle 8 out of 10 crimes as Greater Manchester Police found to be failing victims


The vast majority of all recorded crimes have not resulted in any suspects being charged since November 2017, according to an exclusive new analysis of police data.


Police in England and Wales have consistently failed to bring criminals to justice over the past three years, with many forces closing over 80% of investigations without any suspects being identified or prosecuted.

A significant number have charged suspects in fewer than 10% of cases.

The new analysis also shows little to no improvement has occurred during the pandemic, prior to which a YouGov survey revealed that Britons already expressed staggeringly low levels of confidence in the police’s ability to solve crime.

A recent resident of Chorlton-cum-Hardy in Manchester shared his experience of becoming a victim of crime, and his lack of confidence in the police’s ability to help, after moving there from a “quiet, peaceful village” in Cambridgeshire.

Manchester cityscape during a storm \ Image by Paul Rhoades from Pixabay

Ryan Buxton, a musician and guitar tutor, moved to Manchester in the spring of 2018 with a sense of excitement and expectation of encountering a vibrant city with a “rip-roaring” music scene reminiscent of “New York in the 1980s”, which he imagined would have been “terrible and terrifying in some respects”, but also “very exciting, very interesting in others.”

“In my head I’d painted this romantic and slightly intimidating picture of Manchester being this kind of big industrial place…you know, like you have to really be on your toes, being mugged all the time, or worse, I suppose.”

Shortly after arriving in the area, Ryan quickly found himself subjected to bicycle theft, criminal damage, and attempted burglary.

We did have a bike stolen from our lock-up and the new neighbours below us had both of their bikes stolen when they moved in.

I had my car keyed in town and there was no obvious reason why.”

He decided not to report these crimes to the police, as he felt that they would have “much bigger things on their mind.”

I can’t imagine a huge metropolitan police force having time for bike theft.

Just seemed like a process that was probably pointless I guess.”

He also recalled the experience of a friend who was out busking in the city centre.

“My friend Olly had his headphones stolen. He was walking down the street towards Piccadilly. I think it was during the day, to be honest, and somebody on their bike had cycled past and just taken them off his head.[They were] five miles away before he’d had a chance to do anything about it.

You don’t make your intention to be [near Piccadilly] after a certain time in my opinion. You don’t want to invite anything and if you were to be there at that time of night, maybe you’d be increasing your chances of something happening like that.”

Despite being affected by the sobering realities of inner city crime, Ryan still found it difficult to reconcile his daily experience of Manchester with the more disturbing headlines he often read in the local newspaper.

“Something I would say I’ve noticed is the stories that you hear tend to be quite shocking, I suppose. I find it hard to square what I see on a day to day basis with what I hear about happening in Rochdale or Oldham, other places like that…”


Greater Manchester Police were recently placed into special measures due to their failure to record thousands of reported crimes.

One person castigated the force on social media, claiming that they had ignored his pleas for help following a robbery in December 2020:

Yet long before they were placed into special measures, Greater Manchester Police had significant problems finding suspects to charge.

Of the top five police forces with the highest unsolved crime rate, Greater Manchester Police recorded the biggest rise from November 2017 until the middle of 2019. Beyond this point they failed to accurately record crime and outcomes data, leading to a rapid decline in numbers.

The dramatic increase in investigations being closed without suspects raises serious questions about the force’s real success rate.

Try selecting 1-2 forces / Scores vs Ranks

According to the ONS, their inability to record crimes was initially due to “the implementation of a new IT system”, which meant that the force were “unable to supply data for the period July 2019 to March 2020.” 

Yet the new data analysis shows that from multiple perspectives, Greater Manchester Police were already struggling to keep a lid on crimes prior to this point.

Other people who claimed to have been victims of criminal activity in Greater Manchester shared their perspectives with harrowing stories of being deserted by the police when they tried to report crimes, and potentially life-threatening situations, shortly after the Manchester Evening News first broke the story of the force being placed in special measures.

The Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, and Bev Hughes, Greater Manchester’s Deputy Mayor for Policing, Crime and Criminal Justice, suggested that the pressures of the pandemic played a significant role in the force’s subsequent issues with data collection.

A recent report by Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services said that the force’s litany of problems included:

“Failing to identify, record and investigate around one in four reports of violent crime and to safeguard victims of many of these crimes. This includes behavioural crimes, such as harassment, stalking and coercive controlling behaviour, crimes amounting to domestic abuse and those reported by other agencies involving vulnerable adults and children…

Wrongly and prematurely closing substantial numbers of recorded crime investigations, including a high proportion of crimes involving vulnerable victims, as not supported by the victim, but without the evidence to show this to be the case.”

Greater Manchester Police, the Police Federation, and Greater Manchester Combined Authority were all approached for an interview but declined to comment. 


These withering assessments of police forces in England and Wales have coincided with a report in the Guardian which claims that police forces in England and Wales may face new crime reduction targets “in return for government providing the money for 20,000 new officers”, a flagship Conservative manifesto promise dubbed “Safer Streets” by Boris Johnson.

Yet the push to incentivise police forces to reduce the number of recorded crimes, especially “Homicide and serious violence”, in return for funding which has already been pledged, makes no mention of how unsuccessful they have been at dealing with current levels of crime.

Violence and sexual offences were the most frequently recorded crimes in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland during the past three years, followed by criminal damage and arson.

Cambridgeshire Constabulary, Greater Manchester, West Midlands, Bedfordshire, and West Yorkshire Police, had the highest number of unsolved crimes across all categories in England and Wales, with each force closing over 84% of cases without managing to identify or prosecute any suspects.

The Metropolitan Police also showed a remarkable rise in the total number of unsolved crimes in 2020, bucking the trend set by other police forces, who saw crime levelling off or dipping slightly as the pandemic took hold.

*Crime type data is taken from police “street crime” datasets, which are separate from their “outcomes” datasets, as the latter lack any data with respect to crime types. This means the final figures for “unsolved” crimes will be different (usually higher) than the “street crime” values above.

By contrast, Greater Manchester Police appeared to go in the opposite direction due to the significant issues they have had with data collection.

With the true picture of criminal activity in Greater Manchester over the past two years all but erased by the force’s negligence, the impact of crime upon tens of thousands of victims is impossible to accurately measure.


Featured photo by Anete Lusina from Pexels

Full methodology for the data analysis conducted using RStudio is available on Github. For outcomes data analysis, click here. For street crime data analysis, click here.

Data Journalism

Revealed: 80% of UK adults ready to trust a coronavirus vaccine

Why herd immunity could be achievable despite anti-vax attitudes

 

Source: Alexander Koch on Pixabay.com

Three recent studies suggest a substantial majority of UK adults are ready to be vaccinated against Covid-19, making herd immunity possible, and potentially banishing the coronavirus pandemic to the realm of bad memories and fever-dreams. If 79% of UK adults receive an effective vaccine, this would match or surpass the hypothetical threshold scientists expect a population typically needs in order to defeat a disease like Coronavirus.

Aneesh Thakur, assistant professor of vaccine design and delivery at the university of Copenhagen, though quick to caution against making generalisations, explained that the ‘R’ number has a crucial role to play in how much of the population needs to be vaccinated to ensure success:

Assuming that on average [the ‘R’ number] is 2.5-3, then around 70% of the population should be vaccinated to get herd immunity in order to prevent further spread within the population. We cannot generalise, but that is a theoretical estimation.” 

– Professor Aneesh Thakur, university of Copenhagen, September 2020.

It appears that a substantial proportion of the UK public is ready to put their trust in a vaccine, meaning that it would be possible to meet this theoretical threshold. Comparing data from surveys conducted by King’s College London, YouGov, and University College London, a clear pattern of positive attitudes to taking a coronavirus vaccine emerges. In contrast to widespread media coverage of anti-vax attitudes in the national press, most recently in response to the figures released by UCL, a significant majority of respondents signalled that they were ready to get vaccinated:

Survey results per study – KCL / YouGov / UCL:

UCL survey did not offer respondents a “don’t know” option

Chart: Miguel Roca | Sources (click to Getthedata): KCL / YouGov / UCL | Fri Sep 25 2020

UCL Covid-19 Social Attitudes Survey:

The largest and most recent dataset shown above is the landmark study conducted by University College London, sponsored by the Nuffield foundation, which has been tracking the psychological and social impact of the pandemic on a weekly basis since the original Coronavirus lockdown began. Their evidence overwhelmingly suggests that “on balance”, a significant majority of UK adults have a positive attitude to taking a Coronavirus vaccine. Nearly 80% of UCL survey respondents, taken from a sample of over 70000 people, said that they were very likely, moderately likely, or more likely than not to take a safe, effective vaccine against Covid-19:

“Positive/negative” = varying degrees of how likely/unlikely people thought they would be to take a vaccine.

Chart: Miguel Roca |Fri 25 Sep 2020 | Getthedata

Herd Immunity:

As confirmed cases of Coronavirus rise exponentially across the UK and parts of Europe, society must pin its hopes of stopping the pandemic on an effective vaccine. Estimates for a successful vaccination strategy which could lead to safe and effective herd immunity range from between 43% and 67% of the global population, meaning that an 80% vaccination rate should comfortably meet the required target to put the brakes on the pandemic.

Whilst the estimated “threshold” for herd immunity differs considerably between different diseases, and exists within a hypothetical range, if a sufficiently high proportion of the UK adult population were immunised against Covid-19, it should comfortably match the threshold for related diseases such as SARS1 and influenza:

Chart: Miguel Roca | Sources (click to Getthedata): Statista / IJRR / Harvard / Our World in Data | Wed Sep 23 2020

Although some scientists are cautiously optimistic about the possibility of a mass immunisation program, provided that the vaccines are highly effective against the virus, others remain sceptical and caution against making unsubstantiated predictions about vaccine-induced herd immunity to Covid-19. Dr Alexander Stockdale, NIHR Academic clinical lecturer in clinical infection, microbiology and immunology at the university of Liverpool, stressed the need to resist jumping to conclusions in the absence of real world data:

The level of herd immunity necessary for COVID-19 control is unknown given that we haven’t got a vaccine with evaluable data and these estimates rest on a number of assumptions yet to be validated. I don’t think we could say as such there is scientific consensus at all as these are predictive models not actual data. 

For example, the WHO has suggested a threshold of 50% disease risk reduction for approval of a candidate vaccine. There is a debate about whether disease reduction would translate to a reduction in transmission given that the type of immunity induced by vaccination may not be sterilising, i.e. it might reduce severe disease but not necessarily reduce transmission to the same degree. 

Answering a related question on how effective a vaccine would need to be in order to halt the pandemic if it were administered to 70-80% of the population, Dr Stockdale said:

In general terms vaccine coverage must be higher if efficacy is lower. I cannot provide an estimate as there are still many unknowns here – the proof is in the pudding and evaluation of this must wait for the approval of a vaccine and publication of the phase 3 trial data! There may be surprises along the way and we may be in for a bumpy ride.

For example, issues of fair vaccine allocation, differential efficacy in different populations, the potential effect of rare but serious side effects on population uptake, the role of anti-science and anti-vaccination influence over time. 

Dr Alexander Stockdale, university of Liverpool, September 2020.

As reported in the Financial Times, with 300 potential vaccine candidates in the pipeline – 9 of which have already proceeded to phase 3 clinical trials – the flood of data helping humanity make sense of its latest invisible pathological enemy continues rushing down our digital waterways at breakneck pace.

According to Devi Sridhar, professor and chair of global public health at Edinburgh university medical school, based on other diseases which have plagued humanity throughout history, vaccine-induced herd immunity combined with other measures presents our best realistic hope of controlling and/or eradicating Covid-19. By contrast, since so-called natural herd immunity has never been achieved for many of these deadly pathogens, pursuing this latter, highly controversial approach looks likely to be a dangerously ineffective strategy against the novel Coronavirus:

End Notes

1. This is assuming that the median herd immunity threshold for SARS, which based on these datasets is 65% (between 50-80%), is similar to SARS-Cov2.

Data Journalism

Mapping Corona #2

Visualising Covid-19 Cases & Deaths across Europe

Breathe in the latest Covid-19 case & death data courtesy of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Source: Pixabay.com

Part two of my new series called “Mapping the Reaper” introduces a more localised set of interactive maps to explore Covid-19 case data by country in Europe. See below for details, and check out my first post on this topic for context.

Total Cases / New Cases (14 Days):

Total Deaths / New Deaths (14 Days):

Charts: Miguel Roca 2020 | Source: ECDC | Getthedata |Tuesday September 22 2020.

More to follow soon. Comments & feedback welcome.

M